I'm going to be doing a series of posts on some competitive U.S. Senate races, starting with Missouri.
In Missouri we have longtime incumbent Christopher "Kit" Bond versus current State Treasurer Nancy Farmer or possibly (but not at all likely) Charles Berry, an Attorney from Webster Groves.
Farmer:
A nice, quiet, able elected official, Nancy was not really at the top of the list when people would think of possible challengers to Bond this cycle, but she elected to step up to the plate and run against him, even though it meant that she wouldn't be able to run for re-election as State Treasurer. Frankly, Claire McCaskill should have taken on Bond rather than fellow Dem. Governor Bob Holden, but thats neither here nor there.
Farmer suffers from some fairly serious handicaps, but they can probably be overcome. The first is funding-- she needs money in a bad way. Jean Carnahan spent something close to 12 million dollars on her race and still lost. Has Farmer even reached 2 million raised yet? This will be a serious challenge, given that Bond has millions of dollars to spend on his side. The other problem is that Farmer has a very liberal record from her time in the Missouri House. Given that this was a number of years ago, it probably won't be much of a problem, but if the Bond people feel that he is vulnerable enough and that she is close enough, expect them to unload on her with attacks on her record.
Berry:
Charles Berry really stands no chance of winning the Primary, let alone the general. He's a Vietnam vet who is now and Attorney. Good guy, but should have started with a lower office first.
Why Farmer Will Win:
Nancy Farmer will beat Kit Bond if the following things happen:
1. She gets serious about raising money and raises at least 4-6 million dollars, if not more, by the time of the general election.
2. Kit Bond and his team continue to underestimate her, as they and the republicans have done her entire career.
3. A national tide against Bush and his failures sweeps through. While this seemed unlikely as recently as a few months ago, polls now show the American people are fed up with Bush and the Congressional Republicans. In a swing state like Missouri, national tides are really felt. Bond has never been a big vote getter (even having been beaten by 1 term governor Joe Teasdale in 1976) and only won re-election against a wounded Jay Nixon with 53% of the vote.
Why Farmer Won't Win:
Nancy Farmer won't win if:
1. She doesn't raise the money. Cut and dry.
2. Kit Bond and his people unload their massive warchest on her and simply destroy her before she has any chance to define herself.
3. Bush and the Congressional Republicans are somehow majorly vindicated or the polls suddenly reverse and public faith in their leadership is restored.
Bottom Line:
Nancy needs a lot to go her way in order to win, but its honestly not an unrealistic scenario. If Bush and other R's are swept from office in November, Bond will almost certainly go with them. If things don't break for the Dems in November, then Bond will likely remain in Washington and become the longest serving official in Missouri history.
(this post will be cross-posted @ From the Roots, the DSCC blog)